A game theory analysis of options by Ziegler A.

By Ziegler A.

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By Ziegler A.

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Federal Reserve notes still had ample gold backing relative to the minimum legal requirement – which in any case could have been suspended temporarily in an emergency according to the present law and lowered on a longer-term basis if the Federal Reserve had requested Congress to do so (see Meltzer, 2009 and Butkiewicz, 2007). Researchers find that Federal Reserve President Meyer was particularly (and excessively) sensitive to warnings from Paris (Bank of France Governor Moret) about a potential flight out of the dollar and crash of the ‘global monetary order’.

But given the cumulative rise in the US price level, the choice was between an uncomfortably high rate of inflation in Germany coupled with external stability of the mark or a revaluation of the currency together with a greater degree of internal stability (less inflation). The German government opted in March 1961 for a revaluation of the Deutsche mark. Japan, by contrast to Germany, also experiencing an economic miracle (which continued throughout the 1960s, unlike in Germany where the miracle faded earlier), opted for less internal stability, with the Japanese price level rising persistently and significantly faster than in the US through the first half of the 1960s (see Brown, 2002).

This drama stemmed from the growing monetary disequilibrium created by the Federal Reserve. It is possible that the gold price could have been set completely free (the official market closed) and the international dollar standard sustained, if the US had belatedly been willing to conduct a monetary policy such that Germany and Japan in particular would no longer have to accept inflation rates well beyond their own domestic political tolerance. In Japan that political tolerance was higher than in Germany, but given the underlying upward pressures on the equilibrium real exchange rate of the yen from the continuing Japanese export miracle, the premium of Japanese inflation above already high US inflation would have been especially wide.

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