China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and by CMR of Xiamen University

By CMR of Xiamen University

The study staff makes the subsequent forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s development will stay sturdy and succeed in 8.23 percentage, a rise of 0.43 percent issues in comparison with the former yr; although there's inflation strain due to worldwide financial easing, critical inflation in China is not going to take place, and the shopper cost index (CPI) will stay at 3.11 percentage. moment, the expansion of imports and exports will rebound, however the alternate surplus will reduce additional. eventually, the percentage of funding in GDP will stay excessive within the brief time period as urbanization promotes the expansion of fastened resources funding, even though better in step with capita earning will lead to excessive and regular consumption.

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By CMR of Xiamen University

The study staff makes the subsequent forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s development will stay sturdy and succeed in 8.23 percentage, a rise of 0.43 percent issues in comparison with the former yr; although there's inflation strain due to worldwide financial easing, critical inflation in China is not going to take place, and the shopper cost index (CPI) will stay at 3.11 percentage. moment, the expansion of imports and exports will rebound, however the alternate surplus will reduce additional. eventually, the percentage of funding in GDP will stay excessive within the brief time period as urbanization promotes the expansion of fastened resources funding, even though better in step with capita earning will lead to excessive and regular consumption.

Show description

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Extra resources for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2013

Sample text

The public finance increases fiscal assistance for the new type of cooperative medical care in the rural area and basic medical security for the residents in the urban area. The government advances the reform of public dispensary hospital especially those in county level, implements the primary health institutions and the essential medicine compensations, establishes the funds for the health services, and improves public health as well. 3 Professor Jia Kang, Director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of Chinese.

However, nowadays urbanization cannot only rely on industrialization, but more significant on the compatibility of urbanization and industrialization, such from the perspective of supply especially including of reshaping the production function of the urban. According to the agglomeration effects of urbanization, there would be technical innovations and high efficiency of the public service. We should promote the development of the service industry through more labor division, and owing to knowledge spillovers by investment on the people’s concepts, knowledge, education and institutions, urbanization could get increasing returns to scale, which would create more employment, high-quality output.

The principle of tax reform is “broad tax base but low tax rate”, by levying consumption tax in order to broaden the tax base but reducing significantly the rate of value-added tax. Second, the government could further optimize the tax structure by keeping corporate tax cuts while increasing the personal tax, which means that it should increase the proportion of direct taxes while appropriately reducing the proportion of the indirect taxes. Meanwhile, the government should pay more attention to promoting the social welfare such as free medical care, social security and public services.

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